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May 2018: Our new working paper “The bigger picture” shows that under optimistic assumptions around breakthrough technologies, oil demand could drop by 50% in only 22 years. A combination of shared economy, 3D printing, autonomous vehicles, nanotechnologies, and artificial intelligence, among others, could shave around 30 million barrels per day off of global oil demand. Once you add the ‘traditional’ assumptions around the effects of electric vehicles and the end of oil in the power sector, oil demand could drop to 47 million barrels per day by 2040.
The paper builds on a comprehensive literature review of the potential effects of breakthrough technologies, building on the optimistic assumptions founds in academic literature, as well as research by industry experts (McKinsey). Squarely in the realm of the possible, the analysis represents an alternative vision of what an oil demand crash could look like if technology disruption materializes. Our objective in this paper is not to forecast, but rather to show where optimistic technology assumptions lead the oil sector, providing the potential basis for alternative stress-testing frameworks for fossil fuels.
April 2018: In the context of mobilising policy actions with regard to sustainable finance, the European Parliament and Commission are considering introducing a Green Supporting Factor (GSF) or Brown Penalty (BP) for capital reserve requirements. The objective of this working paper is to identify the potential impacts of introducing a GSF or a Brown Penalty.
Jan 2018: An overview of the current state of the household credit market. We argue that household credit has so far been an overlooked topic in climate finance. While there are some tentative steps from early movers to assess the climate impact of various types of household credit much potential remains to be unlocked.