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April 7, 2022

How has the Ukraine war impacted the Green Market Sentiment Indices?

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To track the impact of the Ukraine war on financial sentiment around the green recovery and the low-carbon transition, 2° Investing Initiative (2DII) has updated its Financial Green Market Sentiment Indexes (GMSI) – Europe. Access the updated dashboard here.

The GMSI was developed by 2DII’s 1in1000 Program on long-term risks in order to track corporate and financial institution sentiment around the green recovery from Covid. It’s modeled after the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), forecasting indicators that track market sentiment around economic growth. Values above 50 indicate market sentiment of a green recovery expansion, while values below 50 suggest a contraction.

As of 18 March 2022, the Financial GMSI for power has moved from 53 to 55 since the start of the war, suggesting that market sentiment is moving in favor of the green recovery. For oil & gas, the index has remained constant at a high level of 66. These findings show that despite the volatility around oil & gas markets, current financial trends have remained consistent in favor of a green recovery from a financial sentiment perspective.

Note: These indexes are designed to track on-the-ground progress on the green recovery and are not a comment on the overall market perception of the likelihood of achieving climate goals. While changes may be exogenous to the climate agenda, the index tracks market changes that are positive for the green recovery.

Learn more here.

What’s next: continuous tracking of the Ukraine War and expansion to Latin America

2DII aims to continue updating the GMSIs over the coming months to track the impact of the Ukraine war on the green recovery. We will also expand to Latin America and other markets in the first half of 2022. In addition, in partnership with the Inevitable Policy Response consortium, we plan to develop a policy sentiment index tracking climate policy experts’ views around progress on the green transition.

Follow our updates on the Ukraine war here.

Access the full GMSI dashboard here and learn more about the GMSIs here.

Questions or comments? Please email comms at 2degrees-investing.org.

About our funders: This project is part of the International Climate Initiative (IKI). The Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU) supports this initiative on the basis of a decision adopted by the German Bundestag. It has also received funding from EIT Climate-KIC. This work reflects the authors’ views only, and the funders are not responsible for any use that may be made of the information it contains.

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